ccording to John R. Bradley in the Daily Star:

There are three concurrent dangerous situations in Yemen.

First, a radical Shiite cleric by the name of Hussein Badreddine al-Huthi has staged a rebellion in the northern region of Yemen near the Saudi border (the Marran area in the Saddah province) that has left close to 200 people dead. 

The Yemeni government accuses Huthi, a leader and scholar of the fairly moderate Shiite Zaydi sect, of amassing an underground and armed group of 3,000 men.  Battles between Hathi’s followers and the government in recent days have handed the Yemeni government some stunning defeats, but most sources indicate the rebellion is being slowly crushed.

Authorities have offered a 10 million riyal ($455,000) reward “for information leading to the capture of the preacher, a former MP whom they accuse of seeking to foment sectarian strife,” reported Arab News.

Huthi, the “Emir al-Mumineen” or “Prince of Believers”, would not ordinarily carry so much currency with most Yemenis since he is Shiite in a largely Sunni country.  However, the local Yemeni population responds very positively to his anti-Israel and anti-U.S. views.  Huthi has openly called for the destruction of both nations, according to one of his aides, by saying “al-Huthi’s only case is against the USA and Israel as he called for their destruction many times,” reports the Yemen Times.

Second, a newly formed opposition group known as the Southern Democratic Assembly is seeking secession in the south.  They insist most south Yemen residents are enormously resentful “at how unification mostly benefited the tribal sheikhs in the north,” reports the Daily Star.  The group’s manifesto repudiates “the politics of forced unity and the systemic eradication of the southern identity.”

Third, a very high-profile trial of the six Al-Qaeda militants implicated in the October 2000 bombing of the USS Cole has begun, “threatening to widen still further he gap between the pro-U.S. regime and a local population seething with anti-American anger,” says Bradley.

This trial is sparking some ominous foreshadowing.  According to Bradley:

The group, called the “Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigade”, posted a statement that read:

What is happening in Yemen is not merely the slow implosion of civil society, but something far more representative.  Yemen serves as a model for many of the countries in the Middle East: pro-U.S. leaders out of touch with their young, anti-American populations, developing economic polarization, social instability, increased government crackdown and growing popularity of extremist groups that carry the banner of Islam and anti-U.S. rhetoric.

The conflict with Huthi evidences the main issue in Yemen.

Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has asked Huthi to turn himself him, promising a fair trial, but has condemned his young and loyal followers for allegedly attacking mosques.  Saleh gives further mixed signals by urging Yemenis to arm themselves against “possible attacks by the U.S.”, and justifying his behavior by contending democracy in Yemen will bring a Jewish leader to power.  Actions such as these will surely only foment an already incensed young and desperate population.

The anti-U.S. sentiment that Huthi has tapped into has been the key to his success as Yemen and the region at large is filled with revulsion toward America.  According to the Daily Star Saddam Hussein’s arrest in December compelled one ordinary man in Yemen to stab the first three Westerners he encountered.  Traffic accidents skyrocketed as road rage manifested itself from anger over the tyrant’s detention by the U.S.  Local newspapers called for jihadists to fight in Iraq, which was apparently a very successful tactic.

What is so troubling is while Saleh plays to the huddled masses, he also tries to appease American’s requests in the war on terror.  In November 2002, Saleh allowed the CIA to launch a missile strike from a Predator drone to kill a wanted terrorist, Salim Sinan al-Harathi.  Additionally, the Yemeni government has also captured hundreds of Islamic militants all while the U.S. is training a Yemeni anti-terrorism unit in the desert.

Saleh is clearly playing a dangerous game.  On the one hand, he is making half-hearted albeit unsuccessful attempts to bring the youth under control, and yet he is placating the security needs of Washington on the other.  The surest result that will come if significant changes are not made is a Yemen with a central government that has no legitimacy on the verge of collapse as independent groups rip the country apart, and young men with their weapons ready to join Al-Qaeda as the only means of retreating from dire economic circumstances and cultural humiliation.