China's One Child Policy
By Alicia Burns
Oct 11, 2004
ccording to a report in the October 4, 2004 edition of the Wall Street Journal, the Chinese government is considering ending its “one child policy” due to demographic and fiscal concerns. As it stands, China is facing a population imbalance, with many more men than women, low birth rates, and a decreasing workforce that may be unable to support the social security programs elderly residents depend on. The government is currently studying plans to gradually phase-out the policy; one currently under consideration calls for ending the multiple births ban in eastern provinces with low birth rates first, followed by removal of the restriction in western provinces, the Straits Times reported.
The Chinese government began to regulate family size in 1980, after Chairman Mao Zedong’s call for a population explosion led to overpopulation and a strain on resources. After the policy was implemented, forced abortions and infanticide became commonplace, as male children were deemed more valuable than females. According to the Taipei Times, demographic levels were normal until 1982, when male births began to surpass female births. By the end of the century, male births outnumbered female births 117 to 100; the imbalance was even more significant in rural areas, where pressure to have children capable of coping with the rigors of physical labor are an asset on family farms. Now, the government is considering removing family planning restrictions in some rural areas first, where the deaths of female babies through neglect or infanticide are more common, the Taipei Times reported.
Speaking about the population problem, Li Weixiong, a government official who works in the population ministry, said the one child policy and cultural preference for male babies was “a serious threat to building a well-off society." In addition to the obvious consequences of low birth rates and population decline, Li described the sociological implications a surplus of adult males without prospects for life partners would lead to. Increased prostitution, rape, and trafficking of women would likely occur, and in some instances, men would resort to illegal brokers to lure foreign women into the country as potential brides, the Taipei Times reported.
According to the Taipei Times, foreign anthropologists agree. Professor Elisabeth Croll voiced the international community’s concerns about the population imbalance, saying, “demographers in China as well as foreign analysts have been expressing concern for some years.” In the last census it was quite clear that this was an upward trend and it is forecast that there will be a shortage of potential marriage mates which will lead to some social instability."
Currently, rural and urban couples are eligible to have a second child if they go through an application process and meet specific criteria. The protocol, set forth by the government in 1990, demands the applicants to meet one of the following requirements: a four year interval between the birth of the first child and birth of the second or the couple applying to have a second child must both be from single birth families or the first-born is disabled. Similarly, Shanghai has allowed couples in which both partners come from single birth families to have more than one child for the past 3 years. Unfortunately, birth rates are still lower than the government would like, which is why a more far-reaching relaxation of the policy is being considered, according to Xinhua, China’s state news agency.
Unfortunately, some areas still prosecute couples for violating the one child policy. China Daily reported on September 21st that ten couples in the southern province of Shenzhen were arrested, their homes were sealed off and they were fined “social fostering fees” for having more than one child. One couple was fined over $90,000 for having twins five years after the birth of their son.
According to Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute, the one-child policy will result in China’s inability to fund domestic programs, particularly its social security program. Elderly residents will outnumber workers, and by 2030, only 2.3 workers for every retired person will be contributing to the system. While market based solutions such as allowing foreign investment firms to handle individual retirement accounts can alleviate the situation, if China wants to retain some of its communist policies, the birth rate will have to increase.
Most government officials concur that the multiple births ban must end, but they also express concern about economic consequences if restrictions are lifted too quickly. According to the Straits Times, Zuo Xuejin, a member of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said, “'We have to design a transition so that there won't be a sudden increase in population.” Part of the success of the economic reforms enacted in 1978 were due in part to lower birth rates, which in turn helped to raise living standards. If the one child policy is revoked too quickly, officials fear some of the gains made in the past two decades could be erased.
Official concerns about reversing the one child policy are justified, but most experts agree that a second population explosion is unlikely, reported the Straits Times. What is certain, however, is that if the policy continues the coming worker shortage will result in economic hardship, a generation of Chinese men will be left with few options for marriage and traditional family life, and the killing of female babies will continue. The one child policy was started to regulate family size after the population explosion; it has succeeded all to well. Birth rates are dangerously low, a generation of men is faced with a dearth of potential mates, and the economic gains experienced by the country since 1978 are put in jeopardy due to an inevitable worker shortage. It is time for Beijing to take action and to heed the example of places like Shanghai, while denouncing the actions of the authorities in provinces such as Shenzhen.
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