earned capital in the campaign...political capital. And now I intend to spend it." With these words President Bush declared victory over his Democratic challenger, John Kerry and accepted another four-year mandate from the American people as President of the United States. But how will this affect Africa? Will President Bush be spending any of that political capital on sorting out the problems on our own troubled continent? Or will he be distracted in his next four years by turmoil in the Middle East and by America's own domestic issues?
The United States is the most powerful and influential country in the world. Africa looks to Washington for all kinds of support - political, trade, health, military, foreign aid. But President Bush, highlighting the priorities for his second term, focused on social security and tax reform, kick-starting the economy, education, an! d the war on terror. At no time during the campaign, or in his post-election press conference, did he make any explicit reference to Africa. Does this mean that Africa is not of any especial interest to the White House or to the American people?
I think not. With the war on terror still Washington's number one priority, Africa is not at all insignificant. On the contrary, America will need strong allies in Africa amid concerns that terror networks have established a presence here, and in view of the continent's porous borders and weak states, which can provide a breeding ground and a sanctuary for terrorists.
Osama bin Laden himself lived in Sudan between 1991 and 1996. And a few months ago Pakistani authorities arrested a Tanzanian member of al-Qaeda - Ahmed Khalfan Ghailan - accused of playing a key role in the bombing of American Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Above all, Africa accounts fo! r a substantial portion of the world's uranium, a key ingredient in nuclear weapons and reactors.
US interaction with African countries is bound to be shaped by these concerns. As an 'incentive' to governments on the continent, the US will be making increased financial commitments in the coming years not to grow the continent's economy but to fight terrorists. Last year, the US offered to make available a $100million fund to help governments in East Africa fight terrorist networks. Realizing that the violence in Sudan could provide a safe haven for terrorists, the US government has provided more than $211 million in aid and humanitarian relief, and an additional $250 million is expected.
In the next four years, more African countries would get support specifically to help fight terrorists or terror cells. Many African countries would be assisted in building local capability to ensure adequate security at borders, law enforcement and intelligence infrastructure. Already many countries have been offered military training and help in providing security at airports. However, the reality is US interest equals Washington support. Considering the instability in the Middle East and the consequent need to diversify oil supplies, securing African oil could also be a high priority for Washington over the next four years. The U.S. currently imports 16% of her oil from Africa. That figure could rise to 50% by 2015. This means a large increase in US investment in the oil and gas sector, but it also means the Bush administration would want to ensure that the regimes in oil-producing states are stable and peaceful.
West Africa, for instance, accounts for most of America's African oil imports and the US is currently negotiating a naval base in Sao Tome and sending military train! ing personnel to Nigeria; both countries boast of large oil fields. West African oil, according to Ed Royce, chair of the House the Committee on Africa, does not suffer the strategic bottlenecks of other regions because much of Africa's oil is offshore, thereby insulated from domestic political or social turmoil. Moreover, the US has developed and maintained good political relations with African oil producers. The administration has promoted trade as the engine of African growth. Building on the success of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Africa would continue to be an important trading partner with the U.S. In 2002, trade between the U.S. and Africa stood around $24 billion. This figure is expected to increase substantially in the next four years.
Nevertheless, while the Bush administration has constantly pushed for free markets, free trade and the removal of trade distorting policies and barriers among African nations, it has failed to live by its own rules! . The Farm Act, signed in 2002, gave $3.2 billion in annual subsidies to US cotton farmers and $1.6 billion export credit for cotton. The support would distort world market price for cotton which represented 43.9 % of exported goods in Burkina Faso, 39.1% in Benin, 32.2% in Chad, and 29.5% in Mali. Until the next round of World Trade Organization negotiations commence, it will remain unclear whether this Farm Act will be amended.
The Bush administration has promised aid contingent on certain criteria through the Millennium Challenge Account. The administration is not well-disposed to aid-based development, but would support countries that initiate market-oriented reforms and liberalize their economies. Aspiring governments must "rule justly, root out corruption, encourage entrepreneurship and invest in the health and education of their people."
Bush needs Africa as an ally in the war on terror, an important source of oil and an increasingly important trade partner. Africa ! must play its part in order to exploit this opportunity - by liberalizing its economy, adhere to the rule of law, democracy and create an enabling environment for investment and entrepreneurship to thrive. Africa should not expect any policy shift in the next four years. Afterall President Bush had hinted during the Leon Sullivan Summit in Nigeria last year that the solution to Africa problem lies within and the peoples of Africa will build their own future of hope.
Ayodele is the Coordinator of the Institute of Public Policy Analysis, Lagos
Thompson Ayodele Coordinator Institute of Public Policy Analysis P.O Box 6434 Shomolu-Lagos Nigeria Website:www.ippanigeria.org
